Discussion
  • Read More
    roger ailes' backfatBrian Kahn
    11/15/19 10:48am

    The shit that I’m always worried about is that we’ve missed some domino that will accelerate the problem by a decade or something. Like, when they first projected this shit 100 years ago they thought it would be where we’re at in like 200 years, and every projection since has been far too optimistic, of course at smaller margins of error. But what are we missing right now? This is the stuff that keeps me up at night.

    Reply
    • Read More
      no replyroger ailes' backfat
      11/15/19 3:57pm

      They missed the bias, among a few others, you know, parametric tweaking. Why, oh why? Maybe because climate change may turn people to civil war worldwide (which would accelerate our extinction rate).

      There are 3 main results:

      We screw climate change so hard, water is gonna evaporate above the Karman line => Hello Mars 2.0

      We screw climate hard and another form of intelligent life will appear in a couple of million of years

      We address climate and screw it a little => Our grand/kids might have chance to live normally

      I definetly hope 3 is the way to go :D.

      Reply
    • Read More
      Times up, time to leave!roger ailes' backfat
      11/16/19 7:50am

      I know what you mean and I think your fear is somewhat justified.

      My thought is this, scientists are notoriously cautious creatures. For the most part they only ever publish or say something publicly when they are really, really, really, really sure of their results. Fear of being shown to be sloppy in your results or conclusions is the ultimate embarrassment and so in this era of skepticism and public shaming via the internet many are being super cautious about what they say.

      There are many dominoes poised to fall and start some kind of catastrophic event, things like the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet which could raise sea level 3 meters in a matter of weeks for instance. There is a whole bunch of stuff related to it that reads like a sci-fi horror film script but no one says outright “this could happen”. They imply it though.

      This is why there is a tendency to underestimate things, you can still take credit for warning about something even if gets way bigger than you said but if it doesn’t happen you only said it was a slight chance right?

      Reply
  • Read More
    Dense Non Aqueous Phase LiquidBrian Kahn
    11/15/19 11:13am

    All that cold needing to freeze arctic ice is somehow being sent to Chicago. Climate scientists explain that away by saying the jet stream is getting all fucked up due to evermore warming or whatever.

    New NASA Visualization Shows What the Dreaded Polar Vortex Really Looks Like

    I think that not only earth’s magnetic north is inching downware, fix’n to flip, but also true north. So the new north pole will be somewhere around Pershing and Cicero Avenue near the wastewater treatment plant.

    Reply
    • Read More
      EnginerrrrrrrrrDense Non Aqueous Phase Liquid
      11/15/19 1:42pm

      What’s funny is the magnetic north pole is actually closer to the physical north pole than 100 years ago. It’s been steadily moving from northern Canada over towards Russia.

      Also what does that have to do with the Jet Stream? The Jet Stream is related to the physical north pole because of how the sun hits different latitudes. and causes stable climates/seasons. Not with magnetism.

      Reply
    • Read More
      Dense Non Aqueous Phase LiquidEnginerrrrrrrrr
      11/15/19 2:12pm

      If by saying that the new north pole would someday somehow be at the Stickney treatment works (Pershing & Cicero) to explain why it’s cold as a well drillers ass here in Chicago right now seems odd, then I’ll enjoy the silliness by myself then. I can’t please everyone.

      BTW, Stickney works is the biggest in the world. That and I’m not sure if the earth could one day flip on its axis - resulting in the Stickney works being the new north pole. Maybe it’ll happen one day.

      The article linked above and several others by Brian here on Earther explain nicely how climate change seems to be messing with the jet stream, thusly allowing for polar cold to move southwards.

      Reply
  • Read More
    Times up, time to leave!Brian Kahn
    11/15/19 8:11pm

    Sea ice extent tends to get noticed more simply because it is easy to see but sea ice volume is way off where it should be and not in a good way.

    Its been getting lower each year on average just like extent but this year is especially bad. And of course the the problem with a lower volume to surface area means it will be primed to melt even faster come next warming season.

    Image for article titled

    http://polarportal.dk/en/sea-ice-and-icebergs/sea-ice-thickness-and-volume/

    Reply
    • Read More
      RiggaldTimes up, time to leave!
      11/27/19 5:58am

      Yeah - practically none of the ice on the Arctic Ocean is the thick stuff that persists from year to year.  Almost all of it is the thin just-got-here sea ice. :-(

      Reply
  • Read More
    macknacatBrian Kahn
    11/15/19 4:21pm

    Woods Hole, Scripps and others have done research into the the Beaufort Gyre circulation and have noted heat penetrating into deep ocean. There is speculation that this could also delay winter ice formation. Bad enough implication for Arctic climate but also has potentially dire implications for maintaining thermohaline based currents- which are the primary drivers for the AMOC...... throw in a new big chunk of methane releasing permafrost melt and ....well....can you say “runaway cascade of tipping points”?

    Reply
    • Read More
      Riggaldmacknacat
      11/27/19 5:56am

      Warm water getting to the deep sea bed also starts releasing the methane from the methane seabed ices.  :-(

      Reply
  • Read More
    newnamesamemeBrian Kahn
    11/15/19 2:38pm

    Im sure its nothing. 

    Reply
    • Read More
      CountDrunkulanewnamesameme
      11/15/19 4:07pm

      Thanks, Donald.

      Reply
    • Read More
      newnamesamemeCountDrunkula
      11/15/19 5:46pm

      i dont know if you dont get my sarcasm or if i dont get yours. 

      Reply
  • Read More
    RaskosBrian Kahn
    11/15/19 4:57pm

    Ah, but apparently everything is going to be OK.

    Reply
    • Read More
      Richard MercerRaskos
      11/17/19 10:34am

      Pretty interesting article, but comparing adaptations to the Little Ice Age and its maximum of 0.5 cooling, with today’s rate of warming is misleading to say the least.  The warming now is at least 10 times faster than when the last glacial period ended.

      Reply
    • Read More
      RaskosRichard Mercer
      11/17/19 7:39pm

      Agreed - I wasn’t commending the author’s point of view.

      Reply
  • Read More
    no replyBrian Kahn
    11/15/19 1:31pm

    Carbon pollution has warmed the Arctic twice as fast as the rest of the world, and the system has rapidly destabilized in recent years. The more plentiful fires and melting permafrost are releasing more carbon that will further speed up the changes.

    Brian, you forgot methane release which has a 20:1 greenhouse ratio compared to CO².

    Meanwhile, disappearing sea ice and thus more open water will ensure the region continues to heat faster than the rest of the world. The vicious cycle has put the Arctic on the brink of a tipping point into a more volatile state unrecognizable from the Arctic we know today.

    Bad news, it was crossed @ 1.07°C above the 20th century mean to be exact.

    Reply