Kinja reply list

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IAMBlastedBiggsLostBurnerHamilton Nolan
5/26/16 3:46pm
Well, that's okay! If it does, we'll just magically spin up some money to bail out the most egregious offenders that manipulated the system to fail in the first place! That way, the only people that suffer are those at the bottom and in the middle, who provide the foundation that allows the system to thrive, especially at the highest levels, while at the same time receiving only the barest of benefits! Because no matter what happens, the system must and will survive for the benefit of those at the controls.
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  Sid and FinancyIAMBlastedBiggsLostBurner
  5/26/16 3:52pm
  Get some sleep, Hillary.
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  IAMBlastedBiggsLostBurnerSid and Financy
  5/26/16 3:56pm
  A wise man wearing suspenders once said ‘Money never sleeps’. Also, ‘if you want a friend, get a dog’. Which is cool, because I don’t have many (any) friends, but I have a dog. Not the dog I wanted, but it is a dog.
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Sid and FinancyHamilton Nolan
5/26/16 3:41pm
the most famous bond investor in history

I consider myself the world’s foremost collector of guitar picks with tangential connection to the late Steve Marriott.

You could call me an obscurator.
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  mwittierSid and Financy
  5/26/16 3:47pm
  
  “I consider myself the world’s foremost collector of guitar picks with tangential connection to the late Steve Marriott.”
  
  Or are you...?
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  MBCockSid and Financy
  5/26/16 3:52pm
  I can say with a degree of certainty that Bill Gross is a big deal in the bond market.
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╰(　´◔　ω　◔ `)╯< Woke and BokeHamilton Nolan
5/26/16 3:41pm
The good news: people suck at predictions. You might die in a freak household accident long before this financial crisis comes to pass.

My money is on nuclear war, personally. In fact, dying from a 50 megaton blast is my retirement plan.
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  Flying Squid (is avoiding writing a novel)╰(　´◔　ω　◔ `)╯< Woke and Boke
  5/26/16 3:45pm
  You have a retirement plan?
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  ╰(　´◔　ω　◔ `)╯< Woke and BokeFlying Squid (is avoiding writing a novel)
  5/26/16 3:46pm
  Yup, a pretty big NEST egg.
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Jerry-NetherlandHamilton Nolan
5/26/16 3:45pm
I thought for sure this was going to be about Peter Schiff (for whom collapse is always imminent).
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  MWarnerMJerry-Netherland
  5/26/16 4:00pm
  As opposed to Jim Cramer for whom a collapse is never imminent. They are like bizzaro versions of each other.
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  Jerry-NetherlandMWarnerM
  5/26/16 4:09pm
  Excellent. I wonder how much of that toilet paper he’s got left (assuming he wipes his ass with his old Bear Stearns stocks).
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QuadPoleHamilton Nolan
5/26/16 3:42pm
Bill Gross is also the guy who bet against US Treasuries and lost his shirt. I would take his advice with skepticism.

http://money.cnn.com/2011/08/30/mar…
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  Sid and FinancyQuadPole
  5/26/16 4:00pm
  We all have bad days. He has killed it over the long term.
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  RealAmurricanQuadPole
  5/26/16 4:11pm
  Yup. Dude struggles with a liquidity trap.
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MWarnerMHamilton Nolan
5/26/16 4:07pm
The system is not going to permanently collapse. People have been predicting this for two centuries and it hasn’t happened. Even in the worst crises things inevitably recover.

We ARE however, headed for a (minor) recession. Probably this fall or early next spring. The indicators are all there and most economists have been saying this for months. Governments and businesses are budgeting next year for it. It’s overdue, honestly. We’ve had six straight years of job and GDP growth. A correction usually happens after four or five.
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  BCDFGMWarnerM
  5/26/16 5:48pm
  I’m agreed that in terms of the indicators, we’re probably headed toward what in normal circumstances would be a minor recession.
  
  I’d question, though, what a “minor” recession could do coming off of 2008. For example, with residential real estate: after the bubble burst,
  
  the Southeastern and Southwestern sunbelt see their markets belly up;
  the Rustbelt states either glacially recovered (like Ohio) or stagnated (like Michigan);
  the banks and financial institutions responded to this by either converting single family homes to rentals at a gigantic scale (via REIT’s) like in Vegas and Phoenix, or they began courting high net worth individuals to overpriced condos on the coasts.
  
  In normal circumstances, the thing to do is lower interest rates and encourage new development and home sales. But things aren’t normal; rates are still low and the bigshots who own the valuable real estate aren’t going to part with it.
  
  What’s difficult for me to wrap my head around is that unless something really changes in the political sphere, the only logical course for housing policy would be a massive version of the slum clearance projects of the 1930's and 40's —essentially, subsidized destruction of homes to get some churn.
  
  But it’s one thing to do that back then, when you could claim to be fighting cholera and promoting public health by destroying pre-war tenament housing. It’s something entirely different to try to sell people on the destruction of perfectly good housing stock, just because you need people to move and sign new mortgages.
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  MWarnerMBCDFG
  5/26/16 5:57pm
  We don’t need to destroy houses, we need to build more of them. Smaller ones, denser ones. A lot. And fast.
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ShameOnYouForSayingThatHamilton Nolan
5/26/16 3:43pm
There is no crisis. Let me correct myself, there is no other crisis. The underemployment crisis, AKA the low wage crisis AKA the Inequality crisis is already underway with only faint signs of abating.

And while the Fed is being goddamn stupid (how about you actually HIT your inflation target, just once, before trying to reign in inflation with another rate hike?) they are not why so much money is sloshing around the securities markets. A lack of better investments, combined with the need for corrupt international plutocrats to park their money where there is rule of law, is what’s propping up asset prices.

Even the tech bubble is bursting more slowly than anyone expected. China may still blow up, but I expect that to be slow-motion as well.

These people are looking for a crisis, because steady-yet-mediocre growth will not mint them another billion this year. They’re salivating over it, because a 5% return on their current pile of money isn’t enough.
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  theunseenoneShameOnYouForSayingThat
  5/26/16 3:59pm
  Yeah, people may think the recession ended, but the root cause (terrible employment prospects, stagnated wages, and a very weak middle class) has never gotten better. The only ones that improved were corporations and those at the top, who then unilaterally declared everything all better. The recession was just the start of it if we can’t get the majority of Americans making a decent wage again.
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  XrdsAlumShameOnYouForSayingThat
  5/26/16 4:10pm
  I think he’s anticipating the rise of right-wing populism around the world and betting that protectionism and defaults will be that crisis. The sooner other investors start panic selling, the more his own shorts are likely to pay off.
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Dashiell HammletHamilton Nolan
5/26/16 3:41pm
If I have to go from being mega rich to just rich I swear I’ll kill myself!

-Rich Guy

(mr. show)
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Flying Squid (is avoiding writing a novel)Hamilton Nolan
5/26/16 3:46pm
Right now we are advising all our clients to put everything they’ve got into canned food and shotguns.
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  Lee Adama's Moral CenterFlying Squid (is avoiding writing a novel)
  5/26/16 5:00pm
  In finance, they call this the Barton Biggs trade.
  
  It works better if you’re rich though: you get better guns and can afford to buy your Beanie Weenies in bulk.
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AssFault on the Highway to HellHamilton Nolan
5/26/16 3:44pm
Translation:

“Fuck all y’all. I got mine.”

Et al, ad infinitum.

Sincerely,

G.I. Lovemoney, esq
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  logintestAssFault on the Highway to Hell
  5/26/16 4:04pm
  brother can i spare a dime?
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