Discussion
  • Read More
    the johnHamilton Nolan
    4/08/15 12:03pm

    Because I'm American and parochial — but I repeat myself — I must ask: are Chinese tech stocks a big home for American investment? Like when this pops, will my retirement go kablooey? Make me give a shit, Nolan!

    Reply
    <
    • Read More
      Whatthefoxsaysthe john
      4/08/15 12:23pm

      The risk of harm is not that your mutual fund will implode. But if China's economy goes into recession the way ours did following the tech bubble, the consequences for the world economy are huge. HUGE.

      Reply
      <
    • Read More
      toothpetardthe john
      4/08/15 12:47pm

      Until you're spending it, it doesn't really exist anyway.

      Reply
      <
  • Read More
    Medieval KnievelHamilton Nolan
    4/08/15 12:54pm

    A P/E of 220 is not outrageous, with even moderate growth assumptions. Ten years of 25% growth — not unreasonable in a country with massive potential to expand its online population — leads to a P/E of 23.6x, more or less in line with the current S&P 500.

    In other words, the PEG ratio is more important than the P/E in emerging markets/sectors.

    Reply
    <
    • Read More
      Hamilton NolanMedieval Knievel
      4/08/15 1:49pm

      Hope you're buying fast then.

      Reply
      <
    • Read More
      Zsa Zsa GaborgMedieval Knievel
      4/08/15 3:29pm

      So you assume a company with 25% annual growth will have exactly the same valuation in a decade, at which point the valuation is no longer hugely disproportionate? Listen, I run a tiny business, and at these levels of valuation my sole proprietorship could be worth tens of millions. (Spoiler alert: it super is not.)

      Reply
      <
  • Read More
    Jennifer C. MartinHamilton Nolan
    4/08/15 12:03pm

    I seriously have like five or six friends (who don't even know each other) who have relocated to China for one reason or another. Am I missing something? Is China the next country of prosperity? Should we Americans start looking to emigrate there?

    Reply
    <
    • Read More
      whatseriouslywhatJennifer C. Martin
      4/08/15 12:11pm

      They're gonna need more toilets before they convince me to live there. I have a chinese friend raised in SoCal who told me she was shocked at all the small children she saw on her trip being held over trash cans and encouraged to poop. Up your toilet game, China! (Its still a beautiful place and I'd love to visit)

      Reply
      <
    • Read More
      Scholarships HelpJennifer C. Martin
      4/08/15 12:27pm

      Honestly, there are a ton of opportunities out there. and if a company sends you out there and puts you up in an ex-pat gated community, it's even better. air quality sucks though.

      Reply
      <
  • Read More
    K-CroHamilton Nolan
    4/08/15 12:40pm

    The Chinese HOUSING BUBBLE is also very real, and I spent an hour or so discussing it with a colleague of mine who is native Chinese and lives in Shanghai. She, like so many of her fellow countrymen, feels there is no cause for concern that they are ALL (those who have some extra cash) investing in "vacation homes" - i.e. - in one of the many "ghost cities" popping up at the behest of corrupt local officials who receive HUGE kickbacks on everything that goes into constructing the apartment/condo/office buildings which have occupancy rates regularly hovering below 1%. They are all confident that they'll eventually be able to sell these for more than their purchase price, and be able to retire on the takings (and buy a retirement home from someone else who has been sitting on it, hoping to make a huge profit so they can retire and buy a retirement home from...). BOOM! So they've got a double-whammy boom coming in the next 10 years and it WILL have global economy ramifications. So, be like Ted Kaczinski and run-away to an easily moved one-room cabin in the woods. (hope you can get a wifi signal there...)

    Reply
    <
    • Read More
      BrtStlndHamilton Nolan
      4/08/15 2:37pm

      "Bull-markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria." - John Templeton

      I'd say buying at 220x earnings with ON MARGIN qualifies as euphoria, but someone out there thinks a 230x earnings valuation is fair value.

      Reply
      <
      • Read More
        ObliteratiHamilton Nolan
        4/08/15 12:07pm

        Uhh, I know P/E ratio can be a little overrated sometimes, but holy shit.

        Reply
        <
        • Read More
          ManchuCandidateHamilton Nolan
          4/08/15 12:08pm

          It is the financial equivalent of Americanized Chinese food. 20 weeks later you'll be broke again.

          Reply
          <
          • Read More
            raincoasterHamilton Nolan
            4/08/15 5:54pm

            I once had a gig writing marketing copy for a Chinese "city of the future" which didn't actually exist yet. I don't think it exists now. I don't think it'll ever exist, actually. When I asked for details of the parks, subways, and actual plans of the city, I was told "Make it up." They stiffed me, too.

            The greed in and about China makes Russian Oligarchs look like Mother Teresa.

            Reply
            <
            • Read More
              Corbin, Michael CorbinHamilton Nolan
              4/08/15 12:08pm

              Currently in the Bay Area a huge portion of the home buyers are Chinese Americans or money backed by Chinese foreign nationals. I have heard stories of cash offers 10% above the current bid or asking price. Most of the homes sit idle and are used for either renting purposes or vacation homes. I wonder what effect the Chinese stock bubble pop will have on the furious pace of home sales and the very high barrier to entry for future home buyers (i.e. 20% down payment).

              Reply
              <