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    OrganicUnicornMeatHamilton Nolan
    3/25/15 11:55am

    I work in biotech and when things go south, they go WAY WAY SOUTH. If a batch goes bad due to a contamination or any of the other hundreds of things that could go wrong, it could be tens of MILLIONS of dollars in lost revenue, and at least a million in materials/labor costs.

    Not to mention, if a company is making a drug, and a competitor beats them to the market, forget about it.

    Biotech is a tricky field. Lots of cool stuff going on, though!

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      Chamomiles DavisOrganicUnicornMeat
      3/25/15 12:38pm

      I'll be right back! I... just need to check something... on Sharebuilder....

      /logs in

      //SELLSELLSELLSELLSELL

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      OrganicUnicornMeatChamomiles Davis
      3/25/15 1:15pm

      HA! That's the thing — big risk for big reward. As with most things in investing, make sure your portfolio is a good mix of stocks, bonds, ETFs, mutual funds, etc.

      FWIW, I haven't sold any of my biotech stocks.

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    Raw Deal MontyHamilton Nolan
    3/25/15 11:24am

    Ahh yes, the 2000 bubble. I did this really great magic act where I made $3000 disappear.

    Good times.

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      LikeJustYourOpinionManRaw Deal Monty
      3/25/15 11:29am

      You must have sold at the bottom rather than holding.

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      Raw Deal MontyLikeJustYourOpinionMan
      3/25/15 11:37am

      I held for a bit but yes i sold shortly before it went to penny stock. It could've been worse.

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    김치전!Hamilton Nolan
    3/25/15 11:19am

    I've got a plan that's gonna make me a billionaire: Corner the rice market in San Francisco! Who wants to buy in?

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      the-return-of-samba00김치전!
      3/25/15 11:36am

      Joshua Norton? Is that you?

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      김치전!the-return-of-samba00
      3/25/15 11:48am

      There's never been a better time for an imperial decree to depose the so-called Congress with force.

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    LadyTheScottishPlayHamilton Nolan
    3/25/15 5:30pm

    HamNo, I have a bunch of stocks right now in biotech. Specifically, in a company named Arrowhead Research. A few months back, their stock went from 22 bucks or so to less than 6. Prime example of this bubble sitch. There's now a lawsuit against them for disclosure issues in the effectiveness of their Hepatitis B drug. I think you'll find this is a common issue that most biotech firms will have, in that their disclosure of effectiveness will come into question once test results are released.

    We're in trouble, HamNo. We are. In. Trouble.

    "The lawsuit claims that during an earnings teleconference on Aug. 12, Arrowhead CEO Christopher Anzalone and COO Bruce Given allegedly failed to disclose the true effectiveness of ARC-520 on humans.

    When the company officially announced the final results of the second phase on Oct. 8, the reduction level in humans was allegedly far short of the suggestions made during the teleconference. That caused the company's stock to fall approximately 44 percent, or $5.48 per share, from its previous closing price."

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      ChenowitzLadyTheScottishPlay
      3/26/15 2:49pm

      yeah, they committed fraud to the IRB. They're lucky they didn't lose accredation to continue research.

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      LadyTheScottishPlayChenowitz
      3/26/15 3:21pm

      Wow, didn't know that.

      Why didn't they lose accreditation?

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    onehappymanHamilton Nolan
    3/25/15 12:35pm

    A client of mine got their teeth kicked in at the 1 yard line when waiting for that elusive FDA approval. The issue for the denial was not insignificant, but the FDA's request for more trials, data, etc has gutted the companies ability to function as investors start to revolt and investment in them dries up. Its a great product that will help countless people (seriously...my crusty black marketing heart actually does believe this) but will likely not see the light of day in the US or if even at all.

    Many of the biotech/medev companies that I work with seem to actively avoid going public.
    I've met with a few who consider going public as 'the last ____ing possible option'.

    If this 'bubble' does burst, maybe we will begin to examine the FDA approval process and the markets perception of a company that does go through a bit of work to get approval. Both of those issues could be improved.

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      Herb & SpiceHamilton Nolan
      3/25/15 11:46am

      If the picture is to be believed, it appears that biotech has been cooling for some time.

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        dothedewHamilton Nolan
        3/25/15 12:03pm

        Not all "bubbles" are created equally. First, the failure of any one company due to the failure of the development of a particular drug does not affect the stocks in the industry so much as that one individual company's stock. Second, for a bubble to have a real effect on the economy, it must cause widespread damage — for example, everyone in the late 90s thought they were a day trader and tech stocks were widely held by individual investors based on no understanding of the fundamentals — but I have seen no evidence that that is the case with biotech stocks today.

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          ShacalaHamilton Nolan
          3/25/15 12:40pm

          I think you are talking more about Pharmaceuticals. I know it's confusing to those not in the industry, but those of us who work in the diagnostics portion of biotech are relatively stable. Mostly this is due to Obamacare, more people being covered, means more people getting tested. In addition to that we also make test used for the pharm companies and there is always new pharm companies that get bought up by the big companies.

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            RationalHubrisHamilton Nolan
            3/25/15 12:05pm

            Biotech is still a solid buy if you invest in index funds rather than individual companies, and don't need the cash for a couple of decades.

            The big companies are always waxing and waning but what you often find is that Company B is hiring for some phase II drug just as Company A has their blockbuster go generic.

            It's also easy to view "drugs" as collectively one type of product, when really the marketing and sale of drugs with large patient populations is functionally incomparable to that of rare and orphaned diseases.

            Personally, I think it will look more like the head of a beer settling than a one big bubble popping.

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              GennySavastanoHamilton Nolan
              3/25/15 11:30am

              You might want to read this blog entry from Bruce Booth at Atlas Ventures:

              http://lifescivc.com/2015/03/biotec…

              TL;DR There is and there isn't a bubble, as biotech companies have been evolving during the past 30 years. You might want to look more closely at the performance difference between Large Cap and Small Cap biotechs and also at what characterizes laggards and overperformers.

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