Kinja reply list

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NonNeoNonConHamilton Nolan
11/11/13 12:56pm
Except on a p-e basis we are no where's even near the previous crashes you mention. Are we a tad high? Yes, but your article is based on gut feeling not math.
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  Gov'tOnStrikeNonNeoNonCon
  11/11/13 2:00pm
  We're also still about 45% shy of stock valuation-to-GDP ratios we normally reach at the heights of bubbles if you want a macro viewpoint. Then again, we will probably hit that mark in 3-5 years so...maybe bubble?
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  NonNeoNonConGov'tOnStrike
  11/11/13 2:13pm
  Assuming we keep climbing to hit that mark then yes bubble. But if we pulled back now I would merely call it a correction.
  
  Is your metric stock valuation to US GDP or to Global GDP? I would say the first doesn't really say much as so much of US business is international...
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ARP2Hamilton Nolan
11/11/13 12:38pm
This is similar to the "Aunt Joan" rule I have. She's my very average, suburban, middle class aunt who generally watches what's on. When she talks about investing in something, it's time to get out. Her previous hits included real estate (in 2007), the internet (in late 1999) and just recently, Apple.
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  Armando stillettoARP2
  11/11/13 12:47pm
  Well? Has Aunt Joan started investing?
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  ARP2Armando stilletto
  11/11/13 12:55pm
  Yes, she said that its time to get into the market.
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Jason ChristensenHamilton Nolan
11/11/13 12:57pm
For 99% of people out there investing should be a long term strategy. Then you can ignore all the hyperventilating about bull market/bear market and day to day, year to year fluctuations. Go long, stay sane.
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keithmacHamilton Nolan
11/11/13 1:18pm
There is absolutely no statistical or empirical data presented in this post. Why don't you try using actual numbers to support your claims instead of going at it like a neanderathal. This is why you write for Gawker.
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  SuarezHambrientokeithmac
  11/11/13 2:45pm
  Go back to selling mortgage backed derivatives upon which you performed no due diligence.
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LarsHamilton Nolan
11/11/13 2:07pm
It's okay, the Average American doesn't have any stock or really, any money to buy stock:

Mentions of wealth and class and the stock market almost always inspire claims about the democratization of ownership through mutual funds. Shareholders' democracy is even more a a game of the affluent than the political kind. In 1992, the most recent year available, the richest 1% of households - about 2 million adults - owned 39% of the stock owned by individuals; the top 10%, over 81%. Even if that's shifted a bit, thanks to the mutual fund boom, there's no changing the fact that the bottom 90% of the population has a smaller share (23%) of investable capital of all kinds to play with than the richest 1/2% (29%). In 1992, stock ownership was even more densely concentrated, with the richest 5% holding 95% of all shares. Let me repeat that: the top 5% of shareholder held 95% of all stock in the hands of individuals. It would have taken a social revolution to make a significant dent in that concentration over the last 5 years.

Cheers, courtesy of Doug Henwood.
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  Snake LipssynkLars
  11/11/13 2:34pm
  Do you know if those stats include pensions? Though I guess the stat would only include self-directed, not the ones being currently ravaged by privatization schemes.
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toothpetardHamilton Nolan
11/11/13 12:37pm
Someone tell me at whom to throw my extra moneys.
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  TheGizmofromPizmotoothpetard
  11/11/13 12:48pm
  
  I hear good things about bitcoins.
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CaryGrantLivesHamilton Nolan
11/11/13 12:36pm
Meanwhile, 1 bitcoin is worth $342 USD. See you on the moon, suckers. ┗(°0°)┛
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  TheGizmofromPizmoCaryGrantLives
  11/11/13 12:45pm
  No wait $500... $250... $75!!!
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  oil-of-oyvayTheGizmofromPizmo
  11/11/13 1:47pm
  The Wall Street casino con is on, once again. Meanwhile Asia and the world's super-rich are loading up on cheap gold. Far more gold is traded than actually exists, via pieces of paper that say you own x ounces of gold in some vault somewhere. Asian buyers prefer cold pieces of metal in hand while western buyers are happy with paper. Guess what happens when all those paper people want to trade in their certificates for actual gold.
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kumfinemyyHamilton Nolan
11/11/13 12:36pm
Yay! I can hawk my Penny Stocks Newsletter again!
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talktotalktoHamilton Nolan
11/11/13 2:33pm
The thing that "Joe Average" doesn't get, is you don't make money chasing bubbles, winners, trends, whatever. If you are reading about the hot new investment fad, you missed the bus long ago. No, you aren't going to make money investing in Twitter or any other bubble driven investment toy. Your neighbor down the street might be bragging about his returns, but chances are you never heard the full story about his long term net losses years prior. In the same league as home ownership, the stock market has been overly played up as this vehicle for growth, and something EVERYONE should be involved with. The stock market as it exists today, and most consumer facing financial instruments for that matter, are basically just vehicles for big institutions to siphon money off clueless little guys, whether it be fees, a strategic and technological advantage, insider knowledge, are a little of everything. There's a reason big banks don't play the market as much they SELL the market...because all the money is in raking in fees, while convincing other people to risk their money.
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kumfinemyyHamilton Nolan
11/11/13 2:13pm
Good, good. My plan is working, soon they'll sell their guns and ammo to play the market. My advice, don't sell your guns and ammo.
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